The U.S. housing market is raising eyebrows, with some experts saying it’s starting to look like the 2008 housing bubble.
Real estate analyst Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure App, says new homes sitting empty are nearing record levels.
What’s Happening?
Builders are cranking out new homes, hoping they’ll sell fast.
But according to Gerli, the number of these unsold “spec” homes built without a buyer lined up just hit the second-highest level ever.
The only time it was worse? The 2008 housing crash.
Why It Matters
From 2012 to 2022, the U.S. faced a major housing shortage. There weren’t enough homes for everyone, which pushed prices sky-high.
But now, some areas, especially in the South and Mountain West, are seeing a flood of new homes hitting the market.
You’d think more homes would make buying easier, right? Not so fast.
Mortgage rates are still high, and home prices haven’t dropped much, making it tough for many people to afford these new homes.
The Numbers
Here’s what Gerli’s data shows:
- Spec Homes: 124,000 are currently unsold—the most in a decade.
- Median Home Price: $430,010 in November, up 5.4% from last year.
- Homes for Sale: Up 10.3% year over year.
Most of the unsold homes are in states like Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee, and Georgia.
In these areas, builders went big during the pandemic but now face a slowdown in buyer interest.
What’s Next for Home Prices?
Gerli predicts home prices in Texas and Florida will drop in 2025, especially in suburban and rural areas where new builds are piling up.
Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest are still dealing with a housing shortage since builders tend to skip those regions.
Why Experts Are Concerned
Some worry this inventory surge could cause bigger problems. Rising insurance costs and sky-high mortgage rates are making it even harder to buy a home.
The Senate Budget Committee recently warned that this could lead to another housing crash—possibly worse than 2008.
Final Thoughts
The U.S. housing market is at a crossroads.
More homes are great, but they’re only helpful if people can afford them.
Keep an eye on prices, especially in states with lots of new builds.
Let us know: Do you think the market is heading for another crash?